As we move into 2025, Canada’s immigration landscape continues to evolve in response to shifting domestic priorities, global events, economic and labour market needs, and developments in technology. In anticipation of these changes, our team has put together a list of ten Canadian immigration developments likely to emerge in 2025.
1. Reducing Immigration Targets
On October 24, 2024, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (“IRCC”) released the Immigration Levels Plan for 2025-2027. The Plan includes immigration targets on the number of permanent residents that will be admitted to Canada for the following year. This year, for the first time ever, the Plan also includes targets for temporary residents, including foreign workers and international students.
Permanent Residence Targets
Permanent resident programs include economic streams, family reunification, refugees and protected persons, and humanitarian and compassionate admissions. Overall, the 2025-27 Levels Plan represents a decrease of 105,000 permanent resident admissions in 2025 (to 395,000), as compared to projected 2025 levels. It is anticipated that more than 40% of overall permanent resident admissions in 2025 will be students or workers already in Canada.
The economic category represents the largest proportion of admissions each year, reaching nearly 62% by 2027. A greater share of economic admissions are allocated under “Federal Economic Priorities” to skilled workers with a focus on critical sectors, such as health care and skilled trades.
Support for family reunification continues through the family category, which maintains a rate of around 22% of overall permanent resident admissions.
Finally, the resettled refugees and protected persons category maintains a rate of about 15% of overall permanent resident admissions in 2025, and admissions of around 2.5% are anticipated for persons selected on humanitarian and compassionate grounds, for reasons of public policy, and in the permit holder class. This also includes some admissions from Canada’s responses to the situations in Ukraine, Sudan, and Hong Kong.
Temporary Residence Targets
Canada has announced a plan to decrease the number of temporary residents to 5% of the total population over the next three years, including temporary foreign workers and international students. Canada’s temporary population will decrease over the next few years as more temporary residents will transition to permanent residents or leave Canada compared to new ones arriving. Specifically, compared to each previous year, Canada’s temporary population is expended to decline by:
- 445,901 in 2025, and
- 445,662 in 2026, and
- will be followed by a modest increase of 17,439 in 2027.
In keeping with these reductions, targets for new temporary resident arrivals are set at 673,650 in 2025, 516,600 in 2026, and 543,600 in 2027. These figures represent work and study permits issued to new arrivals to Canada, but do not include short-term visitors or seasonal workers.
These reductions are unsurprising given the series of measures announced by IRCC over the past year to achieve the goal of reducing temporary residents, including an intake cap on most study permit applications and an amended cost of living requirement for students, eligibility changes to Post-Graduation Work Permits and to work permits issued to the spouses of international students and foreign workers under both the International Mobility Program (IMP) and Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) Program. Additional measures applied to the TFW Program were also recently introduced to better align the program with current labour market conditions.
2. Removing Job Offer Points in the Express Entry System
As part of ongoing efforts to reduce fraud in the immigration sector, the Honourable Marc Miller, Minister of IRCC, recently announced that Express Entry candidates will no longer receive additional points for having a job offer. This temporary measure will reduce fraud by removing the incentive to illegally buy or sell LMIAs to improve a candidate’s chances of being selected to come to Canada as a permanent resident. This change will come into effect in spring 2025.
Once they take effect, the changes will impact candidates pursuing permanent residence through the Express Entry system, including those currently working in Canada temporarily. The changes will not affect candidates who have already been invited to apply or who have an application in progress. Once the change is introduced, it will apply to all candidates with job offers in the pool as well as new candidates entering the pool.
3. Addressing Immigration Fraud
In addition to eliminating the job offer points in the Express Entry system, the Government of Canada also recently proposed to amend the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act to secure and extend new authorities to cancel, change or suspend immigration documents and to cancel, suspend or stop accepting new applications. These proposed changes will give IRCC greater control over its immigration documents, including for example in cases of mass fraud or misrepresentation, where documents connected to the fraud may be cancelled or suspended by IRCC quickly.
It is also likely that 2025 will see Canada and the provinces and territories introduce changes to regulate and more harshly punish “bad actors” in the immigration system, including those individuals who exploit immigrants for profit.
4. Efforts to Reduce Flagpoling at the Border
As announced by the Government of Canada as part of Canada’s Border Plan, and in an effort to reduce border volumes, the ability for flagpolers to receive work and study permits at a port of entry has been significantly reduced. Flagpoling occurs when foreign nationals who hold temporary resident status in Canada leave Canada and immediately re-enter to access immigration services at a port of entry, such as applying for a work or study permit or confirmation of permanent residence.
In limited circumstances, outlined more fully here, work and study permits may still be granted at a port of entry to individuals who otherwise meet the definition of flagpoling. For all others, applications will need to be made online for a new or extended work or study permit.
5. Prioritizing Francophone Immigration
In line with IRCC’s 2024 Policy on Francophone Immigration, the Immigration Levels Plan includes higher proportions of French-speaking permanent resident targets outside Quebec of 8.5% in 2025, 9.5% in 2026, and 10% in 2027 of overall permanent resident admissions, which improves demographic representation across Canada.
Other efforts to increase Francophone immigration include the expansion of the Francophone Mobility Program, the recent introduction of the Francophone Community Immigration Pilot, which is set to launch in 2025 and will attract foreign skilled workers in rural and francophone minority communities in Canada, as well as the French language proficiency category-based draw in the Express Entry system. We anticipate that 2025 will see more Express Entry draws for French language speakers, as well as the development of more programs and pathways to attract Francophone immigrants to all regions of Canada.
6. New Immigration Pilot Programs
Canada is set to introduce several new immigration pilot programs in 2025.
For example, acknowledging the need for more caregivers in Canada, IRCC has announced two enhanced caregiver pilots. These new pilot programs are set to replace the previous Home Child Care Provider Pilot and Home Support Worker Pilot, which closed in June 2024. Unlike the previous pilots, the new caregiver pilot programs are anticipated to provide home care workers with PR on arrival in Canada. Home care workers will also be allowed to work for organizations that provide temporary or part-time care for people who are semi-independent or recovering from an injury or illness. We anticipate that more information will be available before the full launch of the pilots in 2025, including eligibility criteria and details on how to apply.
Additionally, following the success of the Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot, IRCC recently announced the launch of a new Rural Community Immigration Pilot which will provide a pathway to PR for newcomers who can help overcome labour shortages and want to live long term in small rural communities in Canada. On December 14, 2024, IRCC published further details regarding eligibility for the Rural Community Immigration Class, found here. More information is expected in early 2025 on the launch of the new rural pilot program.
Finally, we anticipate that more provincial programs will be introduced to overcome regional labour shortages. For example, in November 2024, government of Manitoba announced a three-year West-Central Immigration Initiative pilot that will see the government partner with seven rural municipalities and Gambler First Nation to support west-central Manitoba employers in addressing labour market and succession planning needs, as well as enabling economic and community growth.
7. Changes to Second Generation Citizenship Rules
There is little doubt that 2025 will be the year where amendments to Canada’s Citizenship Act are finally introduced. Since December 19, 2023, when the Ontario Superior Court of Justice declared the “second generation cut off” at section 3(3)(a) of Canada’s Citizenship Act to be unconstitutional with suspended effect, many would-be Canadians have been following Canadian citizenship laws closely. Bill C-71, which is the legislation currently tabled to remedy the declaration of invalidity, proposes to:
- Remove the limitation on passing Canadian citizenship by descent beyond the first generation born abroad;
- Introduce a substantial connection test for those born after the bill’s entry into force requiring the Canadian parent to demonstrate at least 1,095 days in Canada prior to the applicants birth or adoption, in order to pass along their Canadian citizenship.
On December 12, 2024, the Court granted a further suspension to the Court’s declaration of invalidity, until March 19, 2025, for the declaration of invalidity to expire. Prior to that timeframe, it is expected that C-71 will pass into force. For the time being, IRCC has preserved the option for second generation Canadians with exigent circumstances to apply for a discretionary Grant of Citizenship using an interim process.
8. Parents and Grandparents Sponsorship Program
Canada allows individuals to sponsor their parents and grandparents to become permanent residents through the Parents and Grandparents Program (“PGP”). Under the PGP, Canada issues invitations to apply to individuals who have formally submitted an interest in entering their names into the lottery system. However, due to a large backlog in applications that accumulated throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada has not accepted new interest-to-sponsor forms since the fall of 2020.
Recent Ministerial Instructions published in the Canada Gazette have announced that IRCC will continue to address the PGP backlog in 2025, with the Government only processing applications that were received in 2024, up to a maximum of 15,000. Unless subsequent instructions are given for the 2025 calendar year, no other permanent resident visa applications made by parents or grandparents under the family class and no sponsorship applications made in relation to those applications will be accepted for processing in 2025.
9. Embracing Technology and Artificial Intelligence
We anticipate that 2025 will see the government of Canada increasingly utilizing technology to increase processing capacity and efficiency for immigration applications. In particular, we anticipate that IRCC will introduce a new online client portal that will serve as a single window for applicants, through which applicants will be provided greater transparency into their applications, including both ongoing case status and Officer notes and reasons for refusal.
We also anticipate that the government will continue to incorporate advanced analytics tools and artificial intelligence (AI) into immigration decision-making and border enforcement. For example, the ReportIn mobile app has recently been introduced by CBSA to track individuals required to report to border agents while awaiting deportations or final decisions on their immigration status in Canada. The app, which uses facial recognition technology and location data to confirm identity and the person’s whereabouts, is meant to be an alternative to detention, allowing those subject to immigration enforcement conditions to report to authorities without attending a CBSA office in person. We anticipate that the ReportIn app, and other AI tools like it, will continue to be utilized by IRCC and CBSA in 2025. These tools should be closely monitored to ensure the integrity of the system and procedurally fair administrative decision-making.
10. Expansion of Pilot Projects in the Federal Court
For those individuals who receive unfair or unreasonable refusals of their immigration or refugee applications and lack an appeal right to the Immigration and Refugee Board, often the only remedy is to apply for an Application for Leave and Judicial Review in the Federal Court. However, in the face of a record-setting number of applications filed with the Federal Court this year (nearly four times the yearly average of application filed in 2024 as compared to pre-pandemic levels), we anticipate the Federal Court will introduce more pilot projects to streamline the judicial review of refused applications.
These projects will likely take the lead of the Study Permit Pilot Project, which was launched by the Federal Court in September 2024 and aims to streamline the judicial review of rejected study permit applications. Under the pilot project, individuals applying for Judicial Review of their study permit refusals can complete the entire procedure in 5 months, rather than the current 14-18 months. We anticipate that similar pilot projects may be introduced by the Federal Court in 2025 for other types of applications, including the judicial review of Temporary Resident Visa refusals.
The landscape of Canadian immigration is continuously evolving, influenced by various factors such as policy changes, economic trends, and global events. In order to stay up to date on these changes, and to discuss the various immigration options that might be available to you, your family, or your business, we invite you to contact us for more information.
